Recently I had one of my buyers put a pause on their home search until later in the year or early next year. The young couple wanted to wait out the election and see where we are at then. 

At our recent office meeting we were looking back at 2016 and 2020 and realizing the same phenomenon occurred. The market seems to slow near the election and that trend seems to once again be emerging. Nationwide there has been a slight slowdown being attributed to the uncertainty in the economy, the election, and a potential Fed rate cut being talked about. 

The housing market remains historically sluggish with persistently low inventory as homeowners continue to hold on to their ultra-low mortgage rates. I have seen quite a few situations where people move to a new property but hold on to their old property, keeping it as a rental. Not only do people enjoy their 3% interest rate but real estate can be a great investment over the long term. 

I was talking to a broker recently who is the top realtor in a large neighborhood of several thousand homes. He said there are currently 14 homes for sale or pending but traditionally (over the last 10 to 20 years) there would be 60 to 80 homes in that category. This past July logged a record low number of homes going under contract nationwide.

Locally for San Diego County, we saw a 50% year over year increase in inventory for August but a 2% drop in closed sales. But like clockwork in San Diego, prices increased 4% with a new median sales price of $1,055,000 for detached homes. Looking over the last 10 years, we are on pace to close the lowest number of sales for calendar year 2024 over that period but still hit an all-time high median sales price. A severe lack of inventory is the main driver in my estimation. 

Unlike Phoenix, Houston, Austin, Nashville, etc., San Diego is not able to continue building new neighborhood developments other than a few in Chula Vista. Most of our new housing is in the form of condominiums resulting in a severe housing shortage for our county. I expect housing prices to continue to increase potentially matching the square footage highs of the Bay Area.

For buyers, however, I would suggest continuing to look currently as with less overall buyers in the market and elevated inventory from a year ago, there is a better chance of finding a desirable property. Also, mortgage rates have ticked down significantly! Thirty-year rates are now in the low to mid 6’s for many borrowers. As far as listing a property, you can certainly receive top dollar currently as prices are again reaching all-time highs. 

Feel free to give me a call to discuss your unique situation so I can suggest various options to you.

MARKET REPORT (Single Family): College Area (92115): median price up 3% year to date to $940,000 with 32 homes for sale, inventory up 22%. San Carlos (92119): median price up 17% to $1,117,500 with 26 homes for sale, up 86% year over year. Del Cerro/Allied Gardens (92120): median price up 12% to $1,150,000 with 18 homes for sale, up 200% year over year. 

– Sarah Ward is a REALTOR with Fine & Coastal. Reach her at: [email protected].

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