What Will the New Year Bring? Uptown’s Movers and Shakers Offer their predictions for 2010

Por Leslie Wolf Branscomb

January, the beginning of a fresh new year, looms just ahead. It’s that time of year when promises are made, lofty goals set and prognostications offered for an increased level of wealth, peace and joyfulness in the 12 months to come.
But what, exactly, can we expect in 2010? The Uptown News asked a number of Uptown’s leaders and businesspeople what they think the new year will bring to our corner of the world and found a sense of very cautious optimism, mixed with an unshakable faith that things will get better.
Herewith, their predictions:

Bienes raíces
Pamela Alexandra, real estate broker, Bright Star Realty
At first, Alexandra predicted that the real estate market in 2010 would stay about the same as 2009, with a small amount of inventory. Then she did some more research into home sales in Uptown during November, and revised her prediction. “I now think there will be slow growth in Uptown prices — maybe 5 percent. I would say that holds true in all areas of Uptown.
“There will be more sales in homes under $500,000, which is a hot market now in Uptown. There is short supply and high demand in the lower price ranges. I expect half of the buyers to be first-time buyers again this year. There will also be foreclosures coming on the market, since there is an estimated 3.5 million-home ‘shadow inventory’ in California of short sales and foreclosures coming on this year.”
Her advice? Don’t sell your home unless you have to. But if you’re in a position to buy low-priced property as an investment, then go for it.
“This is a good time to buy investment property, as prices are still relatively low — about 2004 prices. Interest rates should be steady at low rates, which means payments will be low.”

Educación
Dr. Constance Carroll, Chancellor, San Diego Community College District
Carroll sees tough times continuing for education in California overall, as budget cuts eat away at school and college programs. But tremendous progress is on the horizon for the community college district, thanks in large part to past bond measures which have helped the San Diego district plan well for the future.
“We are going to be opening a major facility this coming April, if not before. The Career Technology Center will have a major impact on the community, and will double the size of the nursing program. This is the first major construction at City College in a long, long time.” The new building will occupy an entire city block across the street from the existing City College campus on Park Boulevard. “It’s a building specifically designed to put people to work.”
“We’re also going to be doing our bit to urge the legislature to fund us properly, because all of the cutbacks are just not in keeping with the times. We’re looking at enrollment increases, even with the cutbacks we’ve had to make.”
Carroll said the district is doing well when it comes to things within its control, like the money from two bond measures, approved by the voters, which gave the district $1.555 billion to use for new facilities. Already the results are evident, Carroll said, in the new skills center at the Educational Cultural Complex, and the new science building at Miramar College. “Our local voters understand the importance of community colleges, and now we have to get the state to understand what we do.”
“There’s not enough money, but a great deal of optimism.”

Business
Tom Luhnow, Chief Executive Officer, Greater San Diego Business Association
Luhnow’s first response when asked what will happen in 2010: “I have no clue.” But he does. Based on his own experience shepherding small businesses in and around Hillcrest, Luhnow said he has noticed that the smaller businesses tend to be weathering the economic downturn a little better, perhaps because small companies have lower overhead costs.
“I think we’re looking at the third quarter of 2010 before we really see the uptick. I hate to say that, but I think realistically we shouldn’t expect it any sooner than that.”
“However, we do have some people who have actually done better in this economy. People are shopping around more and getting bids,” and often smaller businesses benefit as a result, Luhnow said. Web design businesses, for example, are doing well as more people realize the value of having a professional Internet presence.
Luhnow said the GSDBA is trying its best to help businesses through the downtime, by posting information about loans and seminars on its Web site and in its newsletter. “We tell people, you need to let those in Congress know that you need help. The latest I saw was banks had canceled $10 billion in loans to small businesses, and that’s devastating. We try to be proactive and get the word out there.”

County Government
San Diego County Supervisor Ron Roberts, 4th District

Roberts foresees positive developments ahead, in the form of a new park, a new operations center — and more Facebook friends. “In 2010 I’m looking forward to continuing to work with Mid-City’s great and active community groups. Regionally, I am hoping to announce some exciting news about the creation of a major new park along downtown’s waterfront. We also will continue to make it easier and more efficient for San Diegans to interact with local government when we open the first phase of the new County Operations Center. Located in the Fourth Supervisorial District in Kearny Mesa, this should be the ‘greenest’ facility of its kind in the state.

“Finally, while I look forward to meeting and greeting as many constituents as I can at community events and official proceedings, I’m excited to continue gathering ‘friends’ on Facebook so we can all better share our experiences of living in the best neighborhoods of this great city.”

Arts

Victoria Hamilton, Executive Director, City of San Diego Commission for Arts and Culture

Funding for the arts may be tight these days, but the upside is likely to be more collaboration among groups, as artists seek to stretch their available funds, Hamilton predicted. “We’ll see even more collaborations among arts and culture organizations, around cross-promotions and marketing, and the development of outreach and education programs,” Hamilton said. “I think we’ll see some new mergers, probably with our smaller-budget arts organizations,” she said, citing the recent merger of the San Diego Men’s Chorus and the Gay Men’s Chorus as an example. “I would expect probably that we will see another show head to Broadway too.” Hamilton pointed out that 2010 will also be a year for celebration locally: the San Diego Symphony will celebrate its 100th anniversary, and the Old Globe Theatre its 75th.

Investments
Kurt Eakin, financial adviser with Edward Jones in Mission Hills
What will the future bring? Eakin laughed. “I have that question every day from clients.”
Eakin may not know the answer, but was willing to offer some cautious predictions, based on larger trends. “The unemployment rate is much higher here in Southern California than it is nationwide, and we don’t really see that getting much better in 2010. People are still losing jobs right now.”
“But we do see signs of stabilization in the economy, on a small scale.” Eakin predicted a small improvement in the stock market, perhaps 8 to 9 percent. “A portion of that comes from economic growth, some from dividend yield, and fairly tame inflation. We also have a long-term inflationary issue coming up, but probably inflation will be more of a problem in 2011 and 2012.
“A lot of these are big what-ifs, and we’re in a very difficult time for forecasting right now. There’s still a lot of negativity. What I’m recommending clients do right now is not to be greedy, and to take profits along the way, and for us to pay extra-special attention to asset allocation. There’s a lot to pay attention to.”

State Government
State Senator Christine Kehoe, 39th District
Leave the dire predictions to the others — for Sen. Christine Kehoe, the new year is all about hope: “I hope the economy continues to get stronger and more San Diegans find the jobs they need. That will help San Diego remain the wonderful place it is to live. Best wishes to all of you for a peaceful and prosperous 2010.”

Banking
Cindy Lehman, Senior Vice President, California Bank & Trust
Despite the hardships facing the banking industry, Lehman, who runs California Bank’s Hillcrest branch, is still optimistic. But that’s just the way she is.
“I believe things are going to get better. December’s been an OK month for people. People are spending a little more than they thought they would. But the reality is, nobody knows.”
“I have pretended in this environment that there are no problems,” Lehman said, explaining her philosophy for dealing with tough times. “I focus on what’s right for the bank and what’s right for the customer,” she said, adding that she sometimes advises people not to take out loans they don’t really need.
“I’ve been a Pollyanna most of my life, where I always see good, and in this environment it’s been difficult. But I really do think things will get better. My sappy side says if everyone would go out and do one good thing, the world would get better right away.
“So remind all of your readers to go out and do something good today, and that will make it better for everyone.”