This should be the year the economy edges out of a 16-month-long recession with jobs slowly returning to the region, according to an economic report released in early March by the Point Loma Nazarene University’s (PLNU) Fermanian Business and Economic Institute. “Next month we’ll see signs of job growth,” said Lynn Reaser, PLNU’s leading economist. “[But] it’s going to take a long time to get the jobs back.” Reaser said national unemployment should drop below 9.5 percent by year’s end, but that it should take until 2013 to “reach our previous peak in jobs.” The economy shed about 8.4 million jobs since 2007, cites the report. Reaser presented her 2010 economic findings and forecast to a ballroom full of business-minded representatives during a regional economic outlook forum at the San Diego Marriot Hotel and Marina downtown on March 4. A central message of the university’s economic institute is that businesses and firms should take advantage of the economy’s tendency to “snap back” after a recession. “It’s time to act,” said PLNU professor of entrepreneurship Randy Ataide. “If businesses wait too long, the risk of the business in losing out in the recovery becomes greater. We’re encouraging business looking at 2010 as a way out of the trough.” Productivity gained through running “lean and hard” strategies resulted in profits for many businesses, but those profits came from higher productivity output and not hiring more people, Ataide said. He added that companies should address worker’s needs. California state public debt also increased during the recession, with federal funds softening some of the blow of shrinking state government payrolls, according to the institute’s economic report. Most jobs lost were in the private sector, the report states. In order for California to pull out of its budget deficit quagmire, Reaser said, program spending would need to be cut and taxes raised. Reaser’s report also predicts that San Diego will stay slightly ahead of the state and national curve during a recovery. Unless stymied by a jolt in energy costs for “green” industries — and assuming there is a pickup in housing markets — tourism, healthcare and biotech industries stand to drive the local economy. Military construction also plays a huge part, with $1.4 billion in new construction locally in 2010. “We [Navy] are growing rapidly,” said Rear Adm. William French, commander of Navy Region Southwest. French participated on a guest panel of speakers from various industries. Other guest speakers included Rear Adm. Kenneth Slaght (Ret.), vice president of Navy IT Solutions Sector, General Dynamics Information Technology; Anthony Sorge, CEO of biotech company Genlantis; and Hugh Constant, executive vice president of the World Trade Center, San Diego. While indications point to a slow but sure economic recovery, the road is fraught with potential pitfalls that would affect the national and local economy in a major way, said economic experts. Commercial real estate continues to be a problem, with office building vacancies hovering around 20 percent in San Diego. China and Asia’s emerging markets represent the most “rapidly growing segments of the world’s economy,” according to Reaser’s report, which also states the loss of China as a major growth engine would “jeopardize the global economic recovery.” A surge in oil prices and the economic effects of natural disasters could also impact a steady national economic growth, according to Constant. All these factors represent question marks for any long-term recovery. Constant, however, said investing in future education would be a good idea. “Local government needs to take care of education” to remain competitive in a future global market, he said.