Not only is global warming happening, but the pace of carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere is quickening.

The monthly average concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory just set a new record for the largest 12-month gain in CO2 concentration ever observed. This March, the CO2 level was 4.7 parts per million (ppm) higher than that recorded a year ago in March 2023, revealing the increasing pace of CO2 addition to the atmosphere by human activities. The previous year-over-year gain of any monthly average was a jump of 4.1 ppm from June 2015 to June 2016, likely due to strong El Niño conditions influencing global weather patterns causing a temporary boost in CO2 levels.

“We sadly continue to break records in the CO2 rise rate,” said Ralph Keeling, director of the CO2 Program at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and son of Charles Keeling, discoverer of the Keeling Curve accurately measuring atmospheric CO2. “The ultimate reason is continued global growth in the consumption of fossil fuels. This recent surge shows how far we still need to go to stabilize the climate system. Stabilization will require that CO2 levels start to fall. Instead, CO2 is rising faster than ever.”

Research shows that CO2 concentration tends to rise especially fast towards the end of El Niño events. Previously, the most rapid growth rate of CO2 occurred in early 2016 at the tail end of the El Niño season.

El Niño growth surges have been happening on top of the long-term increase in CO2 growth tied to rising fossil fuel emissions, which have increased five percent from 2016 to today. “It’s not surprising that the natural in-and-out carbon growth-and-decay cycle just happened to line up with an El Niño event, which has lined up with fossil-fuel burning to give us this new (CO2 yearly increase) record,” Keeling said.

But the news about climate change is not all negative. “There is a positive here in that we’re going to see the possibility that, in the next five to 10 years, atmospheric CO2 levels may peak and start coming down, and we’ll bend the (Keeling) curve — there is hope in that,” Keeling said.

Asked if he had a message for global-warming naysayers, Keeling replied: “Usually they don’t listen anyway, so they’re part not part of the audience here.”

What needs to be done is simple, argues Keeling. “We’re burning fossil fuels faster than ever,” he said adding, “We need to start slowing CO2 growth.”

Further complicating matters is that rapidly industrializing countries like China and India are adding to the climate-change crisis. “The biggest (CO2) emitter is China for sure, and India is probably catching up,” noted Keeling.

Concerning forecasting climate change, Keeling said, “My business is just to report what’s going on.”

So what needs to be done to slow atmospheric CO2 buildup? “We need a big change in infrastructure,” answered Keeling. “We need to let people live well on less energy with less reliance on fossil fuels.”

How do we get there? “We need to ramp up renewable (solar, geothermal, wind, plant biomass & hydropower) energy and ramp down the use of non-renewable fossil fuel (oil, natural gas, coal & nuclear) energy,” concluded Keeling. “The scientific news isn’t good right now, but we need to keep working on it, keep trying to make a difference.”

THE KEELING CURVE

Charles David Keeling (1928–2005) was an American scientist whose recording of carbon dioxide at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii confirmed the greenhouse effect and global warming. His Keeling Curve measures the progressive buildup of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere. Keeling joined the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla in 1956. He developed the first instrument able to measure carbon dioxide in atmospheric samples with consistently reliable accuracy. Keeling worked at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography for 43 years. In 1957-58, he received funding to establish a base on Mauna Loa volcanic mountain in Hawaii, which is two miles above sea level.

Keeling started collecting carbon dioxide samples at the base of Mauna Loa in 1958 producing data showing CO2 levels were rising steadily in what later became known as the “Keeling Curve.” The continuing data collection started by Keeling is the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the world.

Keeling’s research showed that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide grew from 315 to 380 parts per million (ppm) between 1958 and 2005, with increases correlated to fossil fuel emissions. Those emissions include the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as deforestation and raising livestock, which produces methane, a greenhouse gas. Learn more about how carbon dioxide contributes to climate change at https://scripps.ucsd.edu/research/climate-change-resources/carbon-dioxide-and-climate-change.